The
Oscar nominations are here again. Even though I rarely get it right, I thought I would have a look at the major Oscar categories and make some predictions. Take note that I haven’t seen some of the films, due to the fact that some haven’t come out in the UK yet, but that won’t stop me from pontificating from a false position of authority. (For some opinion with a little weight, try
here and
here for Empire magazine staffers offering their thoughts, and
here for the ever-reliable Tom the Dog).
Best pictureBrokeback Mountain
Crash
Goodnight, and Good Luck
Munich
Capote'No dude, independent films are those black and white hippie movies. They're always about gay cowboys eating pudding.'I know that everyone mentions this hilarious
South Park quote, but it doesn’t stop it being funny. Even though it’s about homosexuality, not something Hollywood is comfortable with, I still think
Brokeback will win best picture. It is, after all, a love story, which tend to do well. Hollywood rewarded
Philadelphia, didn’t it? The combination of factors that lead to the best picture win (buzz, media coverage, memory of the Oscar voters, worthiness, etc.) point towards
Brokeback rather than the others.
Best directorSteven Spielberg –
MunichAng Lee –
Brokeback MountainPaul Haggis –
CrashBennett Miller –
CapoteGeorge Clooney –
Good Night, and Good LuckDGA is a good predictor, and I think they have it right this year. Spielberg has got it already, and the other three are very worthy nominations for relative newcomers, but it would seem like Ang Lee’s year, as long as people forget
Hulk (although Spielberg got it despite
Hook – see, there’s a link right there …)
Best actorPhilip Seymour Hoffman –
CapoteDavid Strathairn –
Good Night, and Good LuckHeath Ledger –
Brokeback MountainJoaquin Phoenix –
Walk the LineTerrence Howard –
Hustle and FlowApart from the surprise of Terrence Howard, the others are all worthy nominations with awards behind them. Will Ledger get it for a
Brokeback blitz? Will Phoenix get it because the academy favours biopics of famous people? Personally, I go for Hoffman, because he is a man who oozes actor quality, enhances a project by his presence and deserves it.
Best actressDame Judi Dench –
Mrs Henderson PresentsFelicity Huffman –
TransamericaCharlize Theron –
North CountryReese Witherspoon –
Walk the LineKeira Knightley –
Pride and PrejudiceWhy is Dench here?
Mrs Henderson Presents is an average film with her good performance, nothing worthy to see here. Bizarre. Glad to see Huffman there, but too small a film. I don’t think that they would want to give another Oscar to Theron, but I thought that about Swank, so what do I know? I’m happy that Knightley got a nom, even though this has been the only film where she has actually been that good (but the same can be said for Halle Berry, so that doesn’t mean anything.) Looks like Witherspoon’s year.
Best supporting actressRachel Weisz –
The Constant GardenerMichelle Williams –
Brokeback MountainFrances McDormand –
North CountryAmy Adams –
JunebugCatherine Keener –
CapoteThis is always a strange group to pick, and can throw up surprises. Will Williams get it in a
Brokeback love-in, or will Weisz get it based on the awards she’s been picking up all over the place? McDormand is a proven actress and Oscar-winner, and Keener has the chops and indie-cred for a Chris Cooper-style win. I haven’t even heard of
Junebug, so apologies to Adams for not counting her as having a chance. I’ll stick my neck out with some unwarranted jingoism and opt for Weisz.
Best supporting actorGeorge Clooney –
SyrianaJake Gyllenhaal –
Brokeback MountainPaul Giamatti –
Cinderella ManMatt Dillon –
CrashWilliam Hurt –
A History of ViolenceAnother interesting collection. Good to see Clooney in there, although I don’t think he’ll get it. Dillon and Hurt are possibilities, but I think it is between Gyllenhaal and Giamatti. Gyllenhaal can get it either for the
Brokeback sweep or the runner-up prize if the main acting nods go in other directions (despite the fact that it is a co-lead role). However, I think it will go to Giamatti, because he is a great little actor who has suffered snubs, and the academy likes to occasionally make up for previous misjudgements (exhibit for the prosecution: Judi Dench – snubbed for
Mrs Brown, rewarded for cameo in
Shakespeare in Love).
Best animated feature filmHowl's Moving CastleCorpse BrideWallace and Gromit in the Curse of the Were-RabbitI haven’t seen any of these, for which I feel terrible, but it has to be
Wallace and Gromit, not just from a jingoistic standpoint, but because it’s Nick Park, and will allow for the 'Cracking Oscar, Gromit' headlines.
Best adapted screenplayBrokeback MountainCapoteThe Constant GardenerA History of ViolenceMunichThe screenplay categories are always tricky; there is no real clue other than throwing a bone to a deserving small film that hasn’t got a hope in the main categories. However, with all the films being of the smaller, serious, low-key type, that doesn’t really apply here.
Brokeback might bulldoze its way through, but there might be some feeling for
Capote, for being the smallest, or
Munich for ‘the message’. I think I’ll plump for
Brokeback, just because of some literary cred (although I think that
Constant Gardener might get it).
Best original screenplayCrashGood Night, and Good LuckMatch PointThe Squid and the WhaleSyrianaThe same consternations apply for original as for adapted. These are all small films, so which to choose? I can’t see Woody getting it (I was surprised to even see this get a nod).
Syriana seems the logical choice, for its complexity, or
Good Night, and Good Luck for its earnest message. However, I think
Crash will get it because it won’t get any of the other awards.
Although I won’t be seeing it live, I’m still looking forward to an interesting Oscars; the number of certainties is low and Jon Stewart is hosting. I’m jealous of you viewers in the US. I hope there’s a highlights show …